Where Did the Seals Go?
Advanced Research Question 4: How have seal populations changed over the years at different locations?
Project Oceanology has been monitoring the seal population in Fishers Island Sound since 1996. Visit NOAA’s website on harbor seals to see how the overall harbor seal population in the northern Atlantic has been changing during that time:
https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/species/harbor-seal
Project Oceanology seal watch trips visit four different sites in Fishers Island Sound: West Clump, Middle Clump, East Clump, and Hungry Point. The ‘clumps’ are small clusters of rocks exposed primarily at low tide in Fishers Island Sound. West Clump has the lowest rocks - it’s completely covered up at high tide - and it’s the most exposed to wind coming in from Long Island Sound. Middle Clump has more rocks than West Clump, and is slightly more sheltered. East Clump is the smallest clump, and some of the rocks are very steep and hard for seals to haul out on. Hungry Point is by far the largest site, and the most sheltered. It consists of many rocky clumps and a rocky peninsula that juts out from Fishers Island. Make sure you have taken our virtual tour of seal habitat in Fishers Island sound for more details on the different sites.
Seals choose their haul-out locations based on a variety of factors, including the availability of suitable rocks (flat and close to the water), the weather on that day, and how sheltered the location is.
Map of Fishers Island Sound. Project Oceanology is in blue; our seal watch locations are in orange.
Part A: Prediction and Reasoning
Write answers to the following prompts on your sheet of paper.
1. Make a prediction: At which site would you expect to see the most seals?
2. Explain your reasoning: WHY do you think we would see the most seals at that location?
3. Make another prediction: How do you think the Fishers Island population of harbor seals has changed since 1996? Has it increased, decreased, or stayed the same?
4. Explain your reasoning: WHY do you think this?
5. Would you expect to see different population trends at different locations? Why or why not?
Part B: Analyze the Data
Look at the dataset below. On your piece of paper, illustrate the data by making a graph. Your graph should have clear labels on both the x-axis and the y-axis. The type of graph (scatterplot, column graph, etc) is up to you.
This table shows the mean number of seals we observed at each location, at different times of tide. Each number is an average of many trips.
Part C: Interpret the Results and Make Arguments from Evidence
Write answers to the following prompts on your sheet of paper.
1. Make a claim that answers the research question (one sentence).
2. What evidence was used to write your claim? Reference specific parts of your graph(s).
3. Explain your reasoning. Make sure to connect your answer to what you have learned about seals, and the seal watch locations.
4. Was your prediction supported by the results? Use evidence to explain why or why not.
5. Were your results different for different locations? If not, propose an explanation for why the population trends are the same. If the locations were different, propose an explanation for why this might be.
6. How would you follow up? Describe a new question that should be investigated to build on these results, and what future data should be collected to answer your question.
Congratulations! Your final analysis should include the following components:
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Your answers to the two video questions
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A statement of the research question that you chose/were assigned
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Your prediction and your reasoning
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Your labelled graph
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Your answers to the results questions
Share your results with your teacher, and/or by emailing it to Project O: projecto@oceanology.org, attn: Dr. Molly